Super Bowl Indicator: Premise and History | Investopedia | 2/9/2025
- joshualin2024
- Feb 9
- 2 min read
The Super Bowl Indicator is a whimsical theory suggesting that the outcome of the Super Bowl can predict the stock market's performance for the upcoming year. According to this notion, a victory by a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) signals a bullish market, while a win by an American Football Conference (AFC) team indicates a bearish trend.
Origins of the Super Bowl Indicator
Introduced in 1978 by sportswriter Leonard Koppett, the Super Bowl Indicator emerged when Koppett observed a correlation between Super Bowl outcomes and market performance. At that time, the indicator had an impressive accuracy rate, correctly predicting market direction in 11 out of 12 games.
Evaluating Its Accuracy
While the Super Bowl Indicator boasted a success rate of around 68% through 2023, its reliability has diminished in recent years. For instance, in 2008, despite the NFC's New York Giants winning the Super Bowl, the stock market experienced a significant downturn. Similarly, in 2022, the NFC's Los Angeles Rams secured victory, yet the S&P 500 ended the year nearly 20% lower. From 2004 through 2023, the indicator was correct only six times out of twenty.
The Allure of Financial Superstitions
The Super Bowl Indicator is among several unconventional theories that attempt to link unrelated events to market performance. Other examples include the "Hemline Index," which suggests that women's skirt lengths can predict economic trends, and the "Lipstick Index," proposing that lipstick sales rise during economic downturns. While entertaining, these theories lack scientific basis and should not inform investment decisions.
The Takeaway
The Super Bowl Indicator is an entertaining market myth rather than a legitimate investment strategy. While checking which team wins each year might be fun, smart investors should rely on sound financial analysis rather than sports outcomes.
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